Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Significant resources is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from across the border, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone close by, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its advantage in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.
