Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. They authors two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
